Probably not. Send it over and we'll underwrite it to find out.
Free, instant, or written. Pick your level of denial.
Same simpleton, three levels of effort. Pick the one that matches how much you trust the broker.
| Tier I · ScreenBack of the NapkinFreeRuns in your browser | Tier II · InstantThe Simpleton |
Tier III · Hand-checkedThe Full MonteStarting at $6,500Priced per project · written only | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napkin value vs. asking price | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| The Money Pit (CapEx planner) | Free basic | The Money Pit Pro included | Built for the deal |
| Things the Seller Forgot to Mention (due diligence) | Free checklist + walk sheet | Pro included: unit-by-unit, photos | Built for the deal |
| Paste an OM or listing | ✓ | ✓ | We read it for you |
| Price per unit & per SF, next to the napkin price | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Cap rate at the asking price and at the napkin price | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Gross rent multiplier | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Break-even occupancy (rough, standard expense ratios) | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| One-line verdict ("Overpriced by about $X") | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| CapEx estimate by property age | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Shareable result card for X / IG | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Result emailed to you as a PDF | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Unit mix entry | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| Full pro forma (NOI, cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, IRR) | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| Property tax reassessment estimate, nationwide | — | ✓ | Checked by a human |
| Save / export | — | ✓ | Written memo |
| Debt sizing & rate sensitivity | — | Basic | ✓ |
| Offer price & LOI terms | — | Max offer | Offer + LOI terms |
| Written buy / renegotiate / pass verdict | — | "Maybe at $X" | ✓ |
| Rent roll & T-12 reviewed line by line by a human | — | — | ✓ |
| Hand-picked rent comps | — | — | ✓ |
| Value-add renovation plan with costs | — | — | ✓ |
| Monte Carlo scenarios | — | — | 10,000 runs |
| Red flags & due diligence list | — | — | ✓ |
| Turnaround | Instant | Instant | Days, not minutes |
| Run a free Napkin | Run The Simpleton | Order The Full Monte |
✓ included · — not included. Everything here is an estimate made by a simpleton. Not investment advice. The Simpleton never renews without asking first.
Deal survived the napkin? Write the LOI. Recommended terms, editable, non-binding.
Roofs don’t care about your pro forma. Plan the reserve. Every number editable. Excel and PDF exports come with The Money Pit Pro, included with The Simpleton.
Every listing is “well maintained.” Check anyway. The 47-item checklist and a printable walk sheet. Phone inspections with photos come with Due Diligence Pro, included with The Simpleton.
Compliance is furious. The LPs want to know who approved this. Nobody did. The moat is a puddle, and here's every step of it.
Step 1 · Deal or No DealDeal or No Deal: 10 Minute Process To Quickly Screen PropertiesUse napkin math to quickly screen properties before sinking time into underwriting.
Read on Substack →
Step 2 · Deal or No DealDeal or No Deal Part 2: UnderwritingA guide for underwriting a multi-family property.
Read on Substack →
How-ToDue Diligence: How-To GuideDue diligence is your opportunity to find all the problems the seller didn’t want to tell you about.
Read on Substack →
How-ToApartment Syndication: How-To GuideAll the steps needed to set up a private real estate offering.
Read on Substack →
Deal or No Deal: An ongoing series where I value a specific property. This property is a 10 unit apartment building in Clearwater, FL listed for $1,900,000.
Read on Substack →
Compilation of the best posts on Real Estate Twitter/X from the past week
Read on Substack →
They don't. Thanks for reading. (Okay, fine, here are 2,000 more words.)
Read on Substack →
A comeback nobody asked for, from a guy who still can't spell IRR
Read on Substack →There’s a person in your podunk town who owns millions in real estate and they’ve never used Excel.
Nov 2, 2026
Real Estate Simpleton@RESimpletonIRRThere’s a person in your podunk town who owns millions in real estate and they’ve never used Excel.
Nov 2, 2026 · View on X →What I lack in smarts I make up for in rent growth assumptions
Nov 2, 2026
Real Estate Simpleton@RESimpletonIRRWhat I lack in smarts I make up for in rent growth assumptions
Nov 2, 2026 · View on X →Deal or No Deal: a 10 unit in Clearwater, FL, listed at $1.9M.
Nov 2, 2026
The seller says it's a 7.26% cap. I get 4.6%. Same building.
The napkin said yes. Florida said lol no.
Real Estate Simpleton@RESimpletonIRRDeal or No Deal: a 10 unit in Clearwater, FL, listed at $1.9M.
The seller says it's a 7.26% cap. I get 4.6%. Same building.
The napkin said yes. Florida said lol no.
How to get rich with real estate:
Nov 2, 2026
1. Become an expert in a specific market to identify mis-priced assets
2. Build broker relationships for off-market deals
3. Inherit your parents' properties
Real Estate Simpleton@RESimpletonIRRHow to get rich with real estate:
1. Become an expert in a specific market to identify mis-priced assets
2. Build broker relationships for off-market deals
3. Inherit your parents' properties
Real Estate Simpleton underwriting is a written analytical service provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax, accounting, appraisal or lending advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or finance any property or security. No fiduciary or advisory relationship is created.
Analyses rely on information you provide and are not independently verified. Projections and simulations are estimates, not guarantees of future results. Consult licensed professionals before making investment decisions. This page is a preview; the service is not yet available.
No. Everything happens through the intake form and email. If it can't be written down, it probably shouldn't be in your underwriting either.
Anonymous. No names, no faces, no LinkedIn. The analysis has to stand on the math, not on our headshots.
At minimum the offering memorandum, trailing 12-month operating statement and current rent roll. Loan terms and inspection notes help if you have them.
The 5-business-day clock starts when we have a complete package. Incomplete packages get a polite email and a paused clock.
No. We tell you what the numbers support, a maximum offer price (The Simpleton) and the odds you regret it (The Full Monte). The decision, and the liability, stay with you.
Yes. It runs in your browser, needs no email, and we don't save what you enter or ask who you are.
The Full Monte is priced per project, starting at $6,500. Scope and price are confirmed by email before work begins.
No. Flat fee per engagement. We have no stake in whether you close.
